Germany’s AfD is nearing a historic state election win, but divisions over Trump, Russia and foreign policy could complicate its rise to power.
Germany’s AfD Stands on the Brink of a Historic Win
Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is approaching a political breakthrough that would have been almost unthinkable in the country for decades.
Voters in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt will go to the polls on Sunday, September 6, with the AfD leading the field in recent surveys.
One recent Infratest dimap poll puts the party at about 42%, far ahead of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union, which is polling in the low 20s.
If the AfD wins an outright majority, it could form Germany’s first far-right state government since World War II.
That possibility has transformed what would normally be a regional election into a national political test.
The vote will examine whether Germany’s long-standing political firewall against the AfD can withstand the party’s rapid growth—and whether the party can translate its growing popularity into actual governing power.
Why the Saxony-Anhalt Election Matters
Saxony-Anhalt is a relatively small state in eastern Germany, but its election carries consequences far beyond the region.
The AfD has never governed a German state. Other mainstream parties have maintained a policy of refusing to form coalitions with it, leaving the party largely isolated despite its electoral gains.
That could change if the AfD secures an outright majority.
Even if it falls short, its strong performance could force the Christian Democrats and other parties into difficult coalition negotiations.
Germany’s political system makes governing without a parliamentary majority possible through coalitions, but the CDU has maintained its refusal to cooperate with the AfD.
The result could therefore produce a paradox: the AfD might win the most votes but still struggle to take power.
Who Is Ulrich Siegmund?
The AfD’s leading candidate in Saxony-Anhalt is Ulrich Siegmund, a 36-year-old politician who has made extensive use of social media and a more populist campaign style.
Siegmund has positioned himself as a force for political change, emphasizing immigration, nationalism and opposition to what he describes as excessive influence from progressive politics.
His campaign has also sought to present the AfD as a party capable of governing rather than merely protesting from the opposition benches.
That distinction matters.
The AfD’s challenge is no longer simply convincing voters to support an anti-establishment movement. If it wins, voters and political opponents will be watching closely to see whether the party can actually run a state administration.
The AfD Wants Stronger Ties With Russia
One of the most significant foreign-policy differences between the AfD and Germany’s mainstream political parties is its approach to Russia.
The party has consistently criticized Germany’s support for Ukraine and has called for a different relationship with Moscow.
Siegmund has also argued for closer relations with Russia.
That position is particularly significant in Saxony-Anhalt, a former East German state where memories of the Soviet era remain part of the region’s political identity. Recent reporting has highlighted the complex attitudes toward Russia among some voters in the region.
The AfD’s Russia position has put it at odds with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government, which has taken a tougher approach toward Moscow.
Germany has recently accused Russia of involvement in an attempted drone attack near Leipzig airport, further intensifying an already polarized debate over Berlin’s relationship with Moscow.
But the AfD Is Also Divided Over Donald Trump
The party’s relationship with the United States presents another complication.
Some AfD politicians see President Donald Trump and the broader MAGA movement as natural ideological allies.
The similarities are obvious: opposition to immigration, criticism of established political institutions, nationalist rhetoric and skepticism toward aspects of the traditional political establishment.
AfD politicians have traveled to Washington, while senior figures have developed relationships with members of Trump’s political movement.
AfD co-leader Alice Weidel has met Vice President JD Vance and previously appeared with Elon Musk in a livestream discussion. Other AfD representatives attended Trump’s second inauguration.
The party has also adopted imagery designed to appeal to Trump’s political movement, including “Make Germany Great Again” merchandise.
But that does not mean the entire AfD agrees on how closely Germany’s far right should align itself with Washington.
The Trump Question Reveals a Deeper AfD Divide
The disagreement is partly about strategy.
One camp sees Trump’s movement as an opportunity to build an international network of nationalist and populist parties.
Another faction is more focused on Germany’s relationship with Russia and the idea that Berlin should pursue an independent foreign policy rather than simply replacing one alliance structure with another.
Siegmund has attempted to bridge those positions.
His message is essentially that Germany should pursue relationships with both Washington and Moscow while prioritizing German national interests.
“We see American interests, we see Russian interests, but we have our own interest,” Siegmund told CNN in August, according to reporting republished by CNN Newsource.
That approach reflects a broader argument inside the AfD: whether the party should become part of a wider international right-wing movement or maintain a more distinctly German and Russia-friendly foreign policy.
Germany’s Political Firewall Is Under Pressure
For years, Germany’s mainstream parties have maintained what is often called the “firewall” against the AfD.
The principle is straightforward: established parties do not form coalitions with the far-right party.
The strategy was designed to prevent the AfD from turning electoral support into institutional power.
But the strategy becomes more difficult as the party’s support increases.
If the AfD wins more than 40% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, excluding it from government could require the other parties to form an unusually broad coalition.
That could mean cooperation among parties that disagree sharply on economic policy, social issues and foreign affairs.
The alternative could be prolonged political instability.
The AfD’s Rise Is Rooted in Eastern Germany
The party’s strongest support remains concentrated in Germany’s former eastern states.
Economic frustration, demographic decline, dissatisfaction with established political parties and a persistent sense of East-West inequality have all contributed to the AfD’s rise.
But the party is no longer confined to eastern Germany.
Its national support has expanded, and recent elections have shown it capable of attracting substantial numbers of voters in western states as well.
Reuters reports that the AfD has been polling around 20% in some western state contests, demonstrating that its rise is no longer exclusively an eastern German phenomenon.
That makes Saxony-Anhalt particularly important.
A decisive AfD victory could provide the party with a governing model it could use in future elections.
What Would an AfD State Government Look Like?
The AfD has outlined an ambitious agenda for Saxony-Anhalt.
Its proposals include tougher immigration policies, deportations of people without legal status, changes to education policy and opposition to various environmental measures.
The party also wants to reshape aspects of cultural and media policy.
Some proposals could be implemented at the state level, while others would remain the responsibility of Germany’s federal government.
That distinction is important.
An AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt would not immediately allow the party to change Germany’s national immigration or foreign policy.
Berlin retains control over major areas such as foreign affairs and national defense.
But a state government would give the AfD control over important areas including education, state administration and parts of policing and domestic policy.
The Economy Is Another Major Concern
The prospect of an AfD-led government has also raised questions about the economic consequences.
Saxony-Anhalt is already dealing with demographic challenges and labor shortages.
Critics argue that some of the AfD’s immigration policies could make those problems worse by reducing the supply of workers in industries that rely on migrant labor.
Supporters counter that restricting immigration and prioritizing German citizens is necessary to protect wages, public services and social cohesion.
The economic argument could therefore become one of the first major tests of an AfD administration if the party takes power.
Could the AfD Actually Govern?
Winning an election and governing are two different challenges.
The AfD has spent much of its existence as an opposition movement, allowing it to campaign against established institutions without having to demonstrate that its policies can work in practice.
Government would change that.
An AfD-led administration would have to manage budgets, public services, schools, infrastructure and the state bureaucracy.
It would also have to deal with the federal government in Berlin and other state governments.
That would expose the party to a new level of scrutiny.
A successful administration could strengthen the AfD’s argument that it is ready to govern Germany.
A chaotic or ineffective government could reinforce the mainstream parties’ warnings about handing the far right executive power.
The Bigger National Stakes for Friedrich Merz
The election is also a test for Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
His CDU is trailing badly in Saxony-Anhalt, and a major AfD victory could deepen concerns about the federal government’s ability to contain the far right.
Merz’s government has already faced political challenges over the economy, immigration and Germany’s role in European security.
An AfD breakthrough would give the opposition a powerful new narrative: that mainstream parties are losing voters because they have failed to address concerns over living costs, immigration and national identity.
The consequences could extend well beyond Saxony-Anhalt.
Could This Change German Politics?
Possibly.
A state-level victory would give the AfD something it has never possessed: direct responsibility for government.
That would change the party’s political status.
Instead of asking whether Germans might someday vote for the AfD, national politicians would have to confront the question of what happens when voters actually put the party in charge.
The election could therefore become a template for future contests in eastern Germany.
State elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin are also approaching, meaning the AfD has several opportunities to build momentum.
Analysts say the party’s ultimate ambition remains national rather than merely regional.
What to Watch on Election Day
Several factors will determine whether the AfD can turn its polling lead into power:
- Can the AfD reach an outright majority?
- How large will the gap be between the AfD and CDU?
- Will other parties maintain their refusal to cooperate with the AfD?
- Can the CDU assemble a coalition capable of blocking an AfD government?
- How will financial markets and businesses respond to the result?
- Will the outcome influence upcoming state elections?
The first question is the simplest—and potentially the most consequential.
If the AfD crosses the majority threshold, Germany would enter genuinely uncharted political territory.
A Historic Test for Germany
The Saxony-Anhalt election is about more than one state.
It is a test of whether Germany’s postwar political system can continue to isolate a far-right party after that party has accumulated unprecedented electoral support.
The AfD enters the vote with a major advantage in the polls, but winning the most votes does not automatically guarantee control of government.
Even if the party falls short of an outright majority, a result around 40% would represent a dramatic political breakthrough.
And if it does win outright, the consequences will extend far beyond Magdeburg.
Germany would face its first far-right state government since World War II—and the AfD would have a new platform from which to demonstrate whether its political movement can move from opposition to power.
For a party increasingly caught between Trump, Russia and its own vision of German nationalism, that may prove to be its biggest test yet.
